Despite the fact that making decisions is a constant in our everyday lives, humans can be surprisingly error-prone when it comes to judgments and making decisions, including and especially the critical ones. Why is this frequently the case and what are some practical steps that we can and should take to minimise such risk?

Most of us are pretty rubbish at assessing uncertain outcomes. This is particular true of situations that are novel, where historical precedent and human experience become irrelevant. But there is hope. SPIES is a simple yet effective framework that can be used by any individual or organisation to improve the quality of their forecasting.