Red Wire or Blue Wire: How You are Subconsciously Compromising Your Decisions

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Hollywood protagonists are often called upon to make critical “red or blue wire” decisions. Our day-to-day lives, while much less dramatic, also require us to make decisions, many of which occur under stressful and risky situations.

I’ve been thoroughly overwhelmed these last two weeks. Overwhelmed by client and project commitments, by trying to keep up-to-speed with the pace of developments in the AI space (where I increasingly spend most of my working time), and on the personal front, with an impending home removal.

The deluge of sensory stimuli and demands on my attention eventually led me to suffer from severe decision fatigue, which is a phenomenon where the more decisions a person makes over a period of time, the more physically, mentally, and emotionally depleted he or she becomes. Towards the end of last week, it become increasingly apparent that I was no longer capable of making clear-headed decisions, or even any decision at all!

The decision fatigue I faced is only one example of how fallible our decision-making capabilities can be, and reminded me of some lessons from the past about how we, as humans, sometimes subconsciously compromise our decisions (and what are some tips and tricks we can adopt to minimise their occurrence).

Red wire or blue wire?

In Hollywood movies, the heroes and heroines are often called upon to make life or death decisions in mere second or minutes (my personal favourite being the “red or blue wire” scene in Die Hard with A Vengeance, where an NYPD detective works to defuse a unique bomb that explodes when two liquids are combined).

Our day-to-day lives, while much less dramatic, often also require us to make decisions, many of which occur under stressful and risky situations. Yet despite the huge number of decisions we make every day, humans can be surprisingly error-prone when it comes to the ones that really matter. Some of this is due to the stress that we face when a decision has to be made, especially when under time pressures or as a result of us being in an emotionally-compromised state. However, even under ideal, stress-free conditions, psychologists have found that our judgments often reflect a high degree of systematic and predictable error.

The costs of poor judgments and bad decisions can be extremely high. At the level of an individual, major life decisions such as which college to attend, which job to take, which country to live in, and which partner to marry, can all significantly and irreversibly alter the course of one’s life. The consequences are exponentially higher at a societal level. For instance, in the case of the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the decision to continue drilling in the face of numerous warning signs ultimately led a cumulative charge of $65bn for BP. Even more significantly, the local ecosystem sustained massive damage whilst the livelihoods of many people living in the region were devastated.

How you are subconsciously compromising your decisions

The human mind, while powerful and wonderous in many ways, is unfortunately quite fallible when it comes to uncertain situations. In particular, I would like to explore four psychological factors that contribute to compromised decisions: our fight-or-flight instincts, cognitive overload, cognitive biases, and conformity pressures.

#1 Fight or flight instincts

When anxiety, fear and panic overwhelm us.

When faced with a stressful situation, we are more likely to experience fight-or-flight emotions such as anxiety or panic. Humans have evolved such instincts to allow us to react quickly to immediate threats, for instance when we encounter a prowling lion or a person with a weapon. However, such responses can also potentially override our ability to accurately evaluate events and make decisions.

When we sense a potential threat, our amygdala, that part of the brain associated with primal emotions and memories, will trigger responses to confront the threat (e.g. aggression, anger) or flee (e.g. fear, anxiety) it. If the threat is perceived to be mild or moderate, our prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for rational and logical thought, is usually able to keep the amygdala in-check. When the hazard is perceived to be large however, for instance a direct and immediate threat to one’s life, the signals from the amygdala overwhelm those coming from the prefrontal cortex so that fight-or-flight responses dominate.

Panic buying of toilet paper and other essentials, which took place on global scale in the earlier phases of the coronavirus outbreak is one such example, as is the (shameful) shunning and abuse of healthcare workers in countries such as Japan and India for fear that they are carrying the virus.

<Top Tips> The first step critical step in addressing fight or flight instincts is to become aware that we are in this mode. Easy to spot signs include a thumping heartbeat, rapid breathing, muscle tension, sweating, or even feeling panicked. Since our fight or flight mode is very much primal in nature, our responses need to be rooted in an awareness of our physiology. It may be cliched but deep breathing techniques (where one takes a series of deep and controlled breaths) as well as meditation and mindfulness techniques are practices which are highly effective. I’ve found that even five minutes of such practice each day, especially at times of peak busyness or when I’m lying in bed and trying to sleep can be very impactful. Over the longer-term, being in a constant fight or flight mode can be hugely damaging to your physical and mental health – I’ve been in this place before and have even come across colleagues whose bodies have temporarily lost the ability to create adrenaline because of extended exposure to stress. If this sounds like you, then it’s critical that you begin to address the underlying sources of your stress, which may sometimes mean making the hard choice of leaving a career, breaking off a relationship, or moving to a new environment.

#2 Cognitive overload

When there’s too much going.

Cognitive overload occurs when a person feels as if he or she is drowned out by overwhelming amounts of information, data or occurrences. The side effects of such overload can severely impact our ability to make decisions.

The decision fatigue I faced over the last two weeks is certainly not uncommon, and is one of the “symptoms” faced by a person feeling as if he or she is drowned out by overwhelming amounts of information, data or occurrences. More broadly, this experience is known as “cognitive overload”.

One of the limitations of the human brain is its limited capacity to hold multiple pieces of information at once – usually no more than 7-10 at any one point in time. As with a clogged sink where the inflow of water from a tap exceeds the outflow, the human brain will under such situations begin to “overload”.

The side effects of such overload can severely impact our ability to make decisions. First of all, we lose our situational awareness so that we are no longer able to process new pieces of information. One such example is when you find yourself not comprehending what someone is saying despite them repeating their explanation multiple times. Secondly, our cognitive performance also suffers. This means that we are more likely to forget things, make errors, fail to see important linkages between different facts, plan effectively, deal with our emotions and with others. Thirdly, when we face cognitive overload, there is also a tendency to lose sight of the bigger picture, and to opt to focus instead on smaller or less important problems. In aggregate, our ability to make judgments effectively is significantly curtailed.

<Top Tips> As I’d learnt last week, the most straightforward way to counter cognitive overload is to reduce the number of decisions that you need to make (i.e., take a break!). The best advice I can therefore give is to simply say “No” – just as you shouldn’t attend every party you're invited to (unless you're a social butterfly with limitless energy!), you don't have to engage with every task or decision. But this option is sometimes simply not available. In such cases, ruthless prioritisation is right at the top of my list – if it’s not time- or mission-critical then relegate it to the back burner. When we’re under the cosh, it’s also important to remember that we are (usually) not a one-person army – don’t be shy to call in the troops by delegating and coordinating efforts among your team (or family as the case may be).

#3 Cognitive biases

When our intuition fails us.

When faced with cognitive overload, our brains will make attempts to reduce the mental strain. One way in which this is achieved is to employ our intuition. Intuition is a powerful evolutionary adaptation for decision-making, allowing human beings to exploit our past experiences and memories to make judgments quickly and effectively.

However, our intuition can, under certain circumstances be prone to failure. These failures of intuition are known as cognitive biases, which are systematic errors in processing and interpreting information which impact our ability to make judgments and decisions.

One of these is the anchoring bias, which occurs when our thinking is influenced by the first relevant data point encountered for a given situation. Suppose that you have just watched a documentary about the dangers of white-water rafting, and a day later your friends ask if you would be interested in undertaking such an expedition. Almost certainly, your assessment of the potential risks and decision, whether rightly or wrongly, will have been influenced by the impressions formed when watching the documentary.

There is also confirmation bias, which occurs when people choose to look for and believe only information that supports their existing beliefs or positions. In one study[1], half the participants were in favour of, and the other half against, capital punishment. All of them read the same two purported studies, one of which seemingly confirming and the other seemingly opposed to their beliefs. Both proponents and opponents of capital punishment ended up more heavily rating those arguments and evidence which supported their own views. In more recent times, confirmation bias is one reason why conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and climate change deniers continue to hold strong views in the face of significant and growing evidence to the contrary.

A third type of cognitive bias is optimism bias, which causes a person to underestimate the risks that they themselves face. Indeed, a 2021 survey found that people generally underestimate their own risk of Covid-19 infection relative to others of the same age and gender.

<Top Tips> Unless you’re a psychologist you’ll likely never become familiar with the full list of cognitive biases, now numbering in the dozens since the term was first coined by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. However, it is very much possible to counter most cognitive biases simply by adopting a habit of routinely reflecting on our actions, always seeking multiple and diverse perspectives, carefully considering the current factors that may be influencing your decision, and most importantly, being aware and open to the possibility that our decisions can often be biased in one way or another.

#4 Conformity pressures

When we simply end up doing what everyone else is doing.

Pressures to socially conform are dangerous and can lead to devastating “groupthink” behaviours where individuals refrain from expressing doubts and judgments or disagreeing with the consensus.

Conformity occurs when a person changes their beliefs or behaviours in order to “fit in” with a group (i.e. normative conformity), out of a desire to be “correct” (i.e. informational conformity), or to align with an expected social role (i.e. identification conformity).

The power of conformity is extremely strong because we experience such pressures at the neurological level. In their book Meltdown, which explores the reasons for systemic failures, Chris Clearfield and András Tilcsik explain that “deviation from the group opinion is regarded by the brain as a punishment” and also elicits a brain response similar to that experienced when we predict that an error or mistake is about to occur. Consequently, in extreme cases, individuals may even change their underlying beliefs to fit that of the prevailing opinion!

While conformity is an important part of many social contracts and enables societies to function, it can also lead to devastating “groupthink” behaviours where individuals refrain from expressing doubts and judgments or disagreeing with the consensus. Accordingly, the group’s ability to make fully-informed decisions is significantly reduced. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which led to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, the collapse of the Iraqi state and years of ongoing internal conflicts, is a devastating case in point. Historians now believe that the assault went ahead because a small group of advisors and then-President George W. Bush were resolutely convinced – despite the lack of evidence – that Iraq had a large stockpile of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

<Top Tips> Group cultures are very much shaped from the top, and as a leader, you can create space for productive dissension in a number of simple ways. This includes speaking last in a discussion so that team members are not pressured to “ape” your perspectives, and actively recruiting for diversity in your teams and discussions so that different cultural and ethnic profiles, social and educational backgrounds, and functional expertise are represented. Going against the grain can be a very difficult thing to do – above all, aim to cultivate an environment where team members feel safe to speak out. If you find that certain team members are still not comfortable sharing their views in a group, make the effort to reach out to them individually to ask for their perspectives.

Awareness is Half the Battle

The human brain is surprisingly fallible when it comes to decision-making. Even outside of fight or flight mode or emotional influences, we are still very much capable of making errors in judgment that on hindsight, appear to defy rational and logical thinking.

Since the negative consequences of poor decision-making can be extremely severe, it therefore makes sense to do as much as we reasonably can to guard against the psychological pitfalls of doing so, especially in high stakes situations.

The good news however is that “the first step toward change is awareness” (in the words of psychologist Nathaniel Branden). By being aware that these psychological factors are at play, it becomes much easier to take the necessary precautions.

On this basis, I’d love to hear from you on which of the four psychological factors we have just discussed has most negatively impacted your decision-making in the past.