Events frequently take us by surprise, with Covid-19, the war in Ukraine, and the advent of Generative AI, just to name a few. Scenario planning, originally developed as military war games in the 1960s, is today a powerful tool that is used to support decision-makers to envision and plan for substantially different futures.

Most of us are pretty rubbish at assessing uncertain outcomes. This is particular true of situations that are novel, where historical precedent and human experience become irrelevant. But there is hope. SPIES is a simple yet effective framework that can be used by any individual or organisation to improve the quality of their forecasting.